The probabilities associated with Lotto 6/49 are determined by calculations based on equally likely outcomes but their interpretation is empirical, as follows. If an experiment (such as a weekly Lotto drawing) is repeated under similar conditions many times (mathematically the requisite number of times must approach infinity) then the probability of an event is the long run proportion of experimental repetitions on which the event occurs. (This is called a law of large numbers. It is a mathematical result only). As illustration, the probability of obtaining a fourth place prize is 0.0009686.

This means that in 26,000 Lotto draws, each particular choice of six numbers will yield a fourth place prize (matching exactly 4 numbers) on approximately 0.0009686 of those plays, that is 26000 x 0.000986 = 25 times. There is no guarantee that this will happen 25 times. The actual number of times is random and subject to what is called the Poisson approximation. The figure of 25 represents an expected number of winnings and is a useful measure by which to compare the performance of different strategies.

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